The Status of Democratic Party Presidential Primary The Weekend (March 1st) Before Super Tuesday, March 3rd (With Updates on March 3rd AM)
Tuesday, March 3rd, 11:30 AM New York time Updates:
The following analysis was composed on Sunday, March 1st evening after Joe Biden’s sweeping victory in South Carolina on Saturday, February 29th and even as news of Pete Buttegieg withdrawal from the Democratic Party Presidential Primary was trickling in. Since then — as of Tuesday, March 3rd AM — much has transpired. Pete Buttegieg has definitely dropped out, and he has now endorsed Joe Biden. Amy Klobuchar too has dropped out, and she has endorsed Biden. When it rains, it pours. Beto O’Rourke — former Presidential candidate from Texas — too endorsed Biden. Former Senate Majority leader, Harry Reid, endorsed Biden. And hundreds of elected officials and activists from all over the country endorsed Biden. All in 24-36 hours.
There are not that many polls after South Carolina decisive decision, much less after series of endorsements of Biden. There is some data, however. And this data suggests an average bounce of 10-12 points for Biden. See here: https://swayable.com/insights/democratic-primaries-2020-super-tuesday-polling and https://www.dataforprogress.org/memos/super-tuesday-final-polling and https://morningconsult.com/2020/03/02/post-south-carolina-poll-joe-biden/ and https://morningconsult.com/2020/03/03/biden-reclaims-national-lead-with-buttigieg-klobuchar-exits/
But there is great uncertainty (and volatility.) Sure enough, there has been enough data to suggest that there has been a Biden surge — but we do not know by how much. Adjusting for several factors, it appears that Biden may have gotten at least 5-6 points increase across board.
Accounting for this, it is now reasonable to forecast that both Biden and Sanders will accrue today about 450-600 delegates. It is also reasonable to forecast that the difference in the total number of delegates will not be more than 50. It is also possible that Biden could be ahead marginally — this was not even a possibility when this analysis was composed on Sunday night.
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Sunday, March 1st, 9 PM New York Time
Where does the Democratic Party Presidential Primary stand now? As of March 1st. After resounding victories in Nevada caucuses and closer victories in Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary by Bernie Sanders, and a huge resounding victory in South Carolina, a distant second in Nevada caucuses, and disappointing finishes in Iowan caucuses and New Hampshire primary by Joe Biden, where do we do stand?
We enter primary contests in 14 states on Tuesday, March 3rd -- widely called the Super Tuesday. About 1,350 delegates are at stake. I wrote on February 11th -- after dismal showing in Iowa by Biden and expected poor showing in New Hampshire -- that after Super Tuesday the only two viable candidates are very likely to be Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden. It was true then and it is very true now. Based on evidence. The conventional Wisdom then was that Biden's candidacy was almost dead, and now the conventional wisdom says that Biden's candidacy is plausible. See here for my forecast on February 11th:
https://gkpolicybriefs.com/briefs/the-state-of-democratic-presidential-primary-joe-biden-is-a-very-credible-candidate
At the end of Super Tuesday elections on March 3rd, Sanders is likely to be ahead by about 100-250 delegates. More likely, by about 100-175 delegates. Why? Bernie Sanders will win in and rack up delegates from California, Coloradao, Utah and Vermont. He will receive substantial delegate counts from Texas, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Maine, and Virginia. Joe Biden will win Alabama, Arkansas, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and likely Virginia, and receive robust number of delegates from these states. He will receive almost the same number of delegates as Biden — may be a few more — from Texas. Biden’s Achilles heel: California and Colorado.
Biden with the huge victory in South Carolina will improve his standing substantially by Tuesday, March 3rd. Historical data (e.g., 2008 Democratic and 2012 Republican South Carolina Primary, and to a lesser extent 2016 Democratic South Carolina Primary) show that a huge win in South Carolina has brought up to 10-15 points increase in national polls -- at least for 3-4 days before it dissipates. Assume that Biden gets about 6-7 points increase nationally, very conservatively speaking. This is likely to translate into 3-5 points in various Super Tuesday states. This will put Biden in strong position in the 6 Southern States and Texas, and keep him about the threshold requirement of 15 percent in California to win decent number of delegates. As a footnote, it is unlikely that we will have enough reliable polls between now and Tuesday to know. Only Tuesday will tell us. One encouraging sign is this: for someone who could not raise money Biden campaign apparently raised $5 million in 24 hours during and after South Carolina primary.
Sanders is in a very strong position -- modestly strong in 6 Southern States, he will do better than a draw in Texas, dominate California, Colorado, and Utah, and may be even win Massachusetts (the home state of Elizabeth Warren where should win ) and Minnesota (the home-state of Amy Klobuchar where she should win.)
Voters do vote tactically. Data appears to suggest that voters abandoned Biden and Warren in New Hampshire and went to Buttegieg and Klobuchar. In South Carolina, they abandoned Tom Steyer and went to Biden. On Super Tuesday, voters are likely to do this again. This will certainly increase the odds of Biden to a larger degree (and Sanders to a lesser degree). And this will certainly depress the odds of Mike Bloomberg, and others including Peter Buttegieg, Amy Klobuchar, and Elizabeth Warren.
What about Mike Bloomberg who has invested about $500 million? Well, he will gather about 50-150 delegates -- the big variance is because of enormous uncertainty. The other candidates will receive about 50 candidates each.
On March 4th, Wednesday, we are likely to wake up to these numbers: Biden about 350-450 delegates, Sanders about 500-600 delegates. The question is this: will the difference between Biden and Sanders be about 100 or 200 delegates. We do not know. Even if it were on the higher end, Bloomberg and others would have gathered more than 200 delegates who will eventually be released. While they are not bound to migrate to any particular candidate, Biden has a good shot at a majority of them given their political dispensation.
If you were looking for big returns, you would bet on Biden. If you are looking for reasonable returns, you would bet on Sanders. Pick your journey, as they say.
Footnotes:
(1) A Democratic party candidate must win 1,990 delegates for a majority (for a total of 3937 delegates). If that does not happen, 771 delegates who are chosen by the party get to participate. So, in the second round it would be a total of 4,750 delegates requiring 2,376 delegates for a majority. In the Democratic party contests, the candidates earn proportional number of delegates depending on the percentage of votes. This comes with a wrinkle that the candidates have to earn at least 15 percent of the votes to earn delegates. There are many other nuances, including allocation of delegates at state level and at congressional level districts. The last Democratic Party candidate to win the majority of delegates was John Kerry in 2004. In each of the other cases, Barack Obama in 2008 and Hillary Clinton in 2016 won the plurality of the delegates but fell shy of the majority by 300-400 delegates. In each one of the situations, the other candidate — Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders respectively — withdrew from the contest giving the leader the majority.
(2) Pete Buttegieg is suspending his Presidential campaign. While he was drawing single-digit votes nationally and in all the Super Tuesday states —- he was drawing statistically significant 4-7 percent. Given the natural inclination of his voters, organically they will go to Biden and/or Warren. Given that Warren’s standing has eroded so much, and that voters do vote tactically, Biden may be biggest beneficiary. He is likely to draw asymmetrically larger fraction of Buttegieg. Accordingly, Biden’s state polls may get a 2-3 percent bump, and that will benefit Biden monumentally in States like California where Biden has been hovering around the required 15 percent threshold.
