My Covid 19 Mortality Projections Are Wrong: Why?

I wrote in the last month (month of April) that the mortality in US due to Covid 19 may be less than 70,000 - 80,000.

I am wrong, of course. Why?

I based my forecast on model estimates. But the forecasts and models were based on a simple assumption: US as a whole and all the fifty states — at least till end of May — will mandate social distancing measures.

But that was not the case to be. President Donald Trump did not extend the national “pause” beyond April 30th, and let the States make the decisions. Social distancing measures were not mandated. That led to many States opening their economies and societies. For instance, Florida, Georgia and Texas were immediate to open their societies. Surprisingly, so did the State of California. Southern California opened the beaches end of April. They had to shut them down soon enough.

One state that has succeeded is New York. New York has been very deliberative. First, the State divided the entire State into various individual regions, and let each region be independent of the other in reopening decision.  Second, the State adopted a strategy of phased reopening.  The New York State has used four fundamental decision benchmarks to decide about reopening a region: Low Infection Rate; Adequate Health Care System Capacity; Sufficient Diagnostic Capacity; and Robust Contact Tracing Capacity. These four benchmarks have been translated into seven specific criteria. 

Compare the state of New York with the state of California.  California also set benchmarks.  California adopted specific indicators/benchmarks to consider reopening: Ability to test, contact trace, isolate, and support the exposed; Ability to protect those at high risk for COVID-19; Surge capacity for hospital and health systems; Therapeutic development to meet the demand; and Ability of businesses, schools, and childcare facilities to support physical distancing. But the policy makers did not follow the decision making model and reopened much before the model recommended. The outcomes have been disappointing.

The real-world experience and the model outcomes tell us that social distancing measures were central to impede the spread of Covid 19 and reduce the mortality.

The University of Washington IHME model changed its forecast dramatically once it learned that the Social Distancing measures would not be in effect. For instance, the mortality projections were between about 82,000 on March 26th and about 72,000 on or about April 29th. By third week of April, the assumptions changed.  The US Federal Government, and the State Government began to relax social-distancing requirements. The mortality projections now increased dramatically to about 134,000 on May 4th, to about 137,000 on May 10th, and to about 147,000 on May 12th.

We will see how it turns out.