The US Elections: Updates on November 5th, 11 AM (Biden is the next President, and Democrats at 48-49 in Senate)

11/5/2020

PRESIDENCY:

There is much anxiety among Biden supporters, and mild hope (and lots of angst) among Trump supporters.

Nothing has changed since yesterday morning -- November 4th, 9 AM -- when I forecast that Joe Biden was the next President of these United States of India based on data and analyses.

We should expect a more public and universal confirmation of this today. Here are some updates.

Arizona (11 EVs) should complete the counting today. While the Trump has been catching up Biden in the count, there are not enough outstanding votes and/or friendly counties for Trump to overcome Biden's lead (69,000 votes).

Nevada (6 EVs): See Arizona.

Pennsylvania (20 EVs): See Arizona.

Georgia (16 EVs): Trump's lead is about 19,000 votes. But it is not clear how many votes have yet to be counted and/or to be publicly posted (counted but not posted.) The outcome depends on the numbers of outstanding votes -- the lowest estimate is 25,000 and the higher estimates are in the range of 100,000 - 120,000. Biden is winning 75 of the outstanding votes. Unless there are at least about 40,000 outstanding votes, Trump will retain his lead. We will know by early afternoon.

North Carolina (15 EVs): Trump leads by about 85,000 votes. But the estimates on the outstanding votes are not at all clear. The state can receive ballots next November 12th. So, we won't know till next week. Having said this, I don't think that the outstanding votes are more than 40,000 votes. Almost certainly, Trump will retain his lead.

But GA and NC do not matter. With AZ and NV alone, Biden gets 270 and wins the Presidency. With PA, he would have the support of 290 electors. It is done

SENATE:

Current numbers 48-48 for Democrats and Republicans.

The Republican incumbent will certainly win in Alaska. The numbers are prohibitively in favor of the Republican.

While we will not know the North Carolina result till next week, the Republican incumbent is certain to win this seat (see my note on the Presidency.)

One of the Georgia senate seats will be determined by run-off on January 21st. The outcome of that race is difficult to forecast -- yet, though the Republican has an edge.

The most interesting -- for now -- is the Georgia Senate race between Perdue (Republican incumbent) and Ossoff (Democratic challenger.) Perdue is leading by about 120,000 votes. So, he will be ahead when the votes are counted. But Perdue may fall below 50 percent threshold (required by Georgia statute) depending on the number of outstanding votes. If there are at least 40,000 votes, then Perdue will fall below 50 percent threshold -- he is now right at 50 percent. If there is a run-off in January, Perdue has an excellent shot because there is a third-party candidate (a Liberterian candidate) who is drawing about 115,000. Most of his votes are likely to go to Ossoff in the run-off because he won't be on the ballot then.

A final note on the Georgia Senate run off races in January. By that time, Biden will be indisputably the President-elect/President.

So, I expect Democrats to be at 48 or 49 eventually -- short of 50 (the majority mark.)