The State of Democratic Presidential Primary: Joe Biden is a very credible candidate contrary to gloomy narratives

At the least, the contest for the Democratic Party Presidential nominee has become very confusing and unsettled.

For long, it looked like Joe Biden would earn the nomination. After "I’m not going to sugarcoat it. We took a gut punch in Iowa" admission of the empirical fact, and wobbly New Hampshire polls and likely "another hit", Biden looks not so robust. On the other hand, Bernie Sanders looks like a winner. There are signs of his winning ways everywhere. And then there is Pete Buttigieg, who too, is winning. And he has the wind behind him. Amy Klobuchar has found her voice. She is surprising everyone with her appealing debate performance and engagement. Elizabeth Warren has certainly lost her shine. She was the leading candidate -- till about 3 months back. She is till viable.

What to make of all this?

As some early new national polls, and the polls from subsequent state contests (e.g. Nevada, South Carolina, Texas and California) show, the climb for Klobuchar and Warren is steep. But it is most steep for Pete Buttigieg. Because their strength will diverse voters has been modest to minimal.

Bernie Sanders will be in contention till the end, so will Joe Biden. The reason for Joe Biden's durability is the African-American support. In the last 3-4 days, I have spoken with African-American democratic voters and their affection/affinity for Joe Biden is very deep. While this is anecdotal, it is consistent with the polling data. Here is something that anecdotal data confirms (the polls); Buttigieg has no traction among African-Americans.

Finally, there is respect for Mike Bloomberg too.

After Super Tuesday, it is likely to be Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden. Mike Bloomberg will be a presence. But it will be contest between Biden and Sanders, and may be Warren. Over 1,300 (35 percent) delegates are at stake on Super Tuesday. These 1,300 delegates are distributed in about 165 Congressional Districts in play on Super Tuesday. A candidate has to earn at least 15 percent of the votes in a District to be eligible for delegates. Biden and Sanders are viable in over 90-95 percent of these Districts. Not so Buttigieg or Klobuchar or even Bloomberg (they are each above the threshold in less than 10 percent of the Districts.) Remember that Iowa and New Hampshire are already priced in, and the picture looks bright for Biden and Sanders, middling for Warren and fairly discouraging from Buttigieg or Klobuchar or Bloomberg.

A high-information consumer about the Democratic Presidential Primary is being currently bombarded with so-called empirical data.

Some of these are right, others are only partly, and yet others simply wrong.

Here are some empirical inferences.

1. Bernie Sanders co-won Iowa caucuses, is likely to win New Hampshire primary, and is leading the national polls -- ahead of Joe Biden. This is Correct.

2. Joe Biden is collapsing in national polls. This is Not Correct -- at least not yet.

The five national polls in the last 24-36 hours show this, and one of those polls -- Monmouth University Poll -- that show Biden collapsing has very small sample:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1227306723012173826?s=20

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1227307002654793729?s=20

3. Joe Biden is in serious trouble with African-American support in South Carolina. This is Wrong.

Sure the latest Quinnipiac University Poll shows that Biden has the support of only 29 percent, followed closely be Mike Bloomberg at 22 percent. Bernie Sanders is about 19 percent, and Pete Buttigieg and Klobuchar with very low support (not significantly different from zero.) See here:

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us02102020_uyid781.pdf/

But here is why Joe Biden is in great position in South Carolina. Mike Bloomberg is not contesting South Carolina. A non-sequitur argument.

4. Mike Bloomberg is rising in national polls. May Be. Though I don't think so. Here is why. Only 25 percent of Bloomberg supporters are sure of their choice, and 73 percent "might change." See Quinnipiac University Poll. See 2a. Here: https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us02102020_uyid781.pdf/

5. Will Iowa and New Hampshire impact the future primaries and caucuses decisively? Probably, not. See here: https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/703383?mobileUi=0&journalCode=jop